Which forecasting method starts with the organization's current level of employment?

The correct approach for forecasting that begins with the organization's current level of employment is Zero Based Forecasting. This method requires that each new period’s forecasts be made from a "zero base," meaning it does not assume any levels of employment based on historical data or trends. Instead, it starts fresh, evaluating all positions and workloads for the business from the ground up, considering what is truly necessary to meet current organizational goals.

This approach is particularly useful for organizations looking to align their staffing needs directly with their strategic objectives and resource allocations. By examining what the organization currently has and critically assessing future needs, it ensures that any growth or downsizing is based on rational needs rather than assumptions derived from past employment levels.

In contrast, other methods like Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasting rely on existing projections and often extend from historical data. Trend Analysis also emphasizes patterns and past data to predict future employment needs, which differs fundamentally from the fresh assessment required in Zero Based Forecasting.